This week the wrestling landscape was changed by the news that Brock Lesnar is no longer with WWE. His contract with the company has expired. Reportedly, the eight-time world champion’s deal ended back at WrestleMania in April. At the landmark event, he lost the WWE Championship to Drew McIntyre in dramatic fashion. It was only when his merchandise was pulled from WWE Shop this week that his contract expiry became public knowledge. Now additional details have emerged, exposing that a new deal hadn’t been reached in time and that the two parties are at an impasse.
While this news has surprised some fans, it won’t have been all that shocking to many. Lesnar’s contract exploits have become an almost yearly feature of WrestleMania season. Playing WWE and UFC off against each other, holding out for more money, threatening to leave, and storming out. All have been semi-regular occurrences since Brock’s return in 2012. In the past, a new deal with Vince McMahon’s WWE has always been reached and Lesnar has continued to be a dominant top star. With that not the case this time, The Beast’s future is looking at its most uncertain in nearly a decade.
So, what are the top three most likely options for Brock Lesnar’s future? Let’s take a look.
1. Most surprising – Shock debut in AEW
Have no doubt, Lesnar will be using talks with the #2 wrestling company to leverage a better deal from Vince McMahon.
In the past, his only two options were WWE or UFC. Yes, he went to New Japan back in the mid-2000s, but he’s a money guy now and has been for a decade. The hard-hitting style and rigorous work ethic of New Japan will have been out of his mind for years. Impact, the former #2, couldn’t afford him even if they wanted to. The heights they achieved as TNA in the late 00s/early 10s are long gone.
Luckily for Brock, AEW sprung up a year ago and has given him that viable third option. But would it actually happen?
There’s no debating that prior to the pandemic WWE were signing up anyone with some name value and talent. Big money contracts were being thrown around left and right just to prevent guys from going to the fledgling competitor. Since COVID, however, the company has relaxed its aggressive signing strategy in a clear effort to save money. Names like Matt Hardy, FTR and Brodie Lee have all made the jump to substantial success. Ultimately, though, Lesnar is of considerably more value to WWE. Vince McMahon’s bottomless pockets would be able to match any offer AEW made. And for a company focussed on developing their own stars, Lesnar can’t be worth the price tag.
Lesnar showing up in an AEW ring would be a huge statement. His presence alone would undoubtedly draw significant interest at first. But to anyone who has seen AEW in the past will know, it would be a style-clash of epic proportions. Lesnar’s incredibly light schedule, coupled with his painfully short squash-style matches, wouldn’t benefit AEW or its talent. While Lesnar, a former IWGP Champion in his own right, facing off with Kenny Omega sounds like a dream match – it wouldn’t be.
Could he sign and have a great run, is it possible? Absolutely, anything is. But it’s incredibly unlikely and almost certainly not worth it.
2. Dangerous but possible – Return to UFC
MMA always has its inherent risks. At 43, though, those risks are amplified.
UFC is the most likely alternative to WWE and more mutually beneficial than a debut in AEW. If this is what Lesnar ends up doing, he’ll need to get back into the USADA drug testing pool immediately. A fight with Jon Jones would unquestionably draw huge under normal circumstances, too. But it’s debatable how much sense there would be in doing that fight without a live crowd and the possibility of an immense live gate. On top of that, the lack of crowd and atmosphere may also hinder PPV buys.
The issue here is that we aren’t under normal circumstances. For a fight with Jon Jones (and the winner going on to face Stipe Miocic, as Dave Meltzer speculated) to make sense, it would need to be in front of that live Las Vegas crowd. But who knows how long it’ll be before that’s possible? Lesnar is running out of time. At his age, fighting against one of the best of all time could have severe consequences. That’s if he could even make it through a tough training camp. As speed and wrestling ability fade with age, he’d also be fighting with a handicap, even if he can retain his strength.
That said, the financial benefit may be enough to lure him back in and take the risk. This is mainly due to ESPN, the economics of a Jones/Lesnar fight and the ludicrous value of a potential >1.2million buy PPV. Dave Meltzer surmised that this would allow ESPN to pay both fighters $25 million for the fight with change left over for a considerable profit margin. Even at the price of his last fight with Mark Hunt ($8 million), a ~400,000 PPV buy would still be economical.
Dana White stated this week that he hasn’t spoken to Lesnar in over a year. If that’s true, Lesnar may recognise that his peak fighting days are over. The cushty schedule and still-hefty pay cheque that pro wrestling offers may be too appealing to turn down at this point in his life.
3. Almost certain – return to WWE
Anyone who’s followed Lesnar’s career knows his contract lapsing is a regular event. They also know he isn’t in pro wrestling for the love of the ‘sport’. If a deal were reached before the merchandising arm of his contract expired (as it did this week), none of this would be noteworthy news. The question here is, why did it reach this point when it hasn’t before?
Lesnar, ever the astute businessman, knows his options are wider than ever before. With AEW now on the cards, his options for leverage have only increased. Even if it is unlikely that Tony Khan would pay the sum Lesnar’s asking for, Vince McMahon would never want to see his biggest star jump ship. Couple that with the possibility of a big money fight in UFC thanks to ESPN, Lesnar’s position is stronger than ever. Vince, however, is famously stubborn. It’s unsurprising that he hasn’t conceded on a massive deal until information on discussions with AEW and UFC leak out. It does seem inevitable, though.
As someone who’s in it for the money, a Lesnar return to WWE doesn’t exactly exude excitement. He’s fought and beaten everyone of any credibility on the roster. He’s won both major titles numbers times. His presence while holding those titles is infamously scarce. For a company that, more than ever, needs to focus on building future stars, Lesnar isn’t going to help do that. Admittedly, he lost to Drew McIntyre who’s carried the company since WrestleMania. But how many times can he do that until he loses his value? And as a businessman, why would he sacrifice that?
Despite all this speculation and the options on the table, a return to WWE does seem to be the almost certain outcome. Chris Jericho said this week that Brock isn’t really a free agent. Looking at his age, the light schedule WWE offer, and Vince McMahon’s deep pockets, it’s likely this whole drama is just a formality. Then again, without the need to fill big arenas, what value does Lesnar truly have to WWE at this stage?
Will The Beast be making a surprise return to WWE at Survivor Series? Will he debut in AEW and lead the company further into success? Or will he head back to UFC for the big money fight with Jon Jones? It remains to be seen.
Let us know what you’d like to see in the comments below!
Featured Image Credit: WWE
